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Real Estate Market • April 8, 2021

First Quarter Market Review for North Kitsap

by Windermere Poulsbo
house looking up

Poulsbo’s North Kitsap market picked up in our first quarter despite a seasonal slowdown. We’ve compiled key highlights so that you can easily get informed about our local real estate market. 

Our Strong Seller’s Market

North Kitsap’s inventory remains low and demand remains high due to people moving away from the bigger cities and COVID-19 changing the way we work. There are still many eager buyers outnumbering sellers. Our Brokers continue to experience situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer in this competitive market.

If you look at the last five quarters detailed in the graph below, you can see that a similar growth trend in volume is repeated when comparing 2020’s first quarter to 2021’s first quarter.  Get ready for the market to continue to heat up as we move from spring to summer.

 

With our low supply, we may see even higher prices. This strong seller’s market is driving us toward an affordability ceiling. As you can see below, there’s a growing listing and sale price divergence. Sellers continue to benefit from our inventory shortage. Prices may soon be too high for some people to afford to buy a home here.

 

average listing price graph

Affordability Issues and Market Insights

Matthew Gardner, Windermere’s Chief Economist, continues to track this affordability ceiling in his most recent Housing and Economic Update: “If the pace of home price growth continues, many households will start to be priced out” of what people can actually afford.  As Gardner points out, we need more supply, and we need home prices to drop to alleviate this market strain.  

Unfortunately, that might not happen fast enough for many hopeful homebuyers to make their dream a reality. Gardner reminds us that the cost of materials, recent storms, and the current housing market prices have all added to the cost of building new homes. This, in turn, will add to the listing price.

Additionally, Gardner points out that mortgage rates have risen after “a jump in bond yields has led rates to spike” as the country re-opens and economic activity increases. The resulting potential inflation causes the 10-year treasury interest rates to rise in hopes of attracting more buyers.  However, it is still far below standard rates and shouldn’t be a concern for buyers right now.

 

Ultimately, it’s still a strong Seller’s Market with an overall low supply and high demand. We expect to continue to see issues with affordability as prices continue to climb.

Community • March 18, 2021

Community Spotlight: Fishline Food Bank

by Windermere Poulsbo
Fishline sign

As one of the oldest food banks in the United States, Fishline has served North Kitsap County for 54 years. It distributes over one million pounds of food annually. Today, Fishline provides comprehensive services to assist our neighbors in need. Read on to find out more about this incredible organization.

Fishline’s History and Mission

The First Lutheran, St. Charles Episcopal, and St. Olaf’s Catholic Parish combined their efforts to establish Fishline in 1967.  Fishline’s mission is to serve the North Kitsap community by providing resources to transform lives. Above all, Fishline envisions a community where a solid foundation exists for all people, including adequate food, shelter, healthcare, and employment. 

Barbara Stuart, Fishline’s first Executive Director, worked tirelessly for 34 years to grow Fishline. Stuart’s leadership pioneered the organization’s innovative comprehensive services structure.  “Their dedicated staff and volunteers work diligently to meet various needs,” says Realtor Randy Taplin, who volunteers at Fishline once a week.

Fishline Food Bank. Photo by Leo Phillips.

A Market and So Much More

Our Windermere agents are proud to volunteer and support Fishline’s services. “Fishline is a remarkable local organization that has evolved into something groundbreaking,” says Bridget Young, Broker. “The new facility serves community members experiencing food scarcity with its attractive and well-stocked market. In addition, they provide access to important services like dental care, mental health services, and resources for veterans.” 

Fishline is most known for its food services through The Healthy Foods Market. The market is fully stocked with fresh produce, dry/canned goods, baby food, diapers, and various products. Additionally, registered clients can shop there up to two times per week and pay on a need-based “Fishbucks” system.

“I love that Fishline is a well-run organization with so many services to offer our local community members in need,” says Joni Kimmel, Broker. Fishline provides emergency and supportive services such as housing assistance, mental health services, and financial advice.

Mobile Showers Program

On October 5, 2020, Fishline launched its new Fresh Start Mobile Shower Program in collaboration with Kitsap County Rescue Mission, the City of Poulsbo, Clear Creek RV, and Integrity Roofing. The program hopes to expand Fishline’s safety net by providing physical, mental, and emotional benefits to community members during this unprecedented time. It operates Mondays, Wednesdays, and Fridays. They provide clients with towels, toiletries, clothing, cold weather gear, and access to its other support services. 

Programs to Address Housing and Food Insecurity

As part of its comprehensive structure, Fishline offers rent assistance, eviction prevention, and homeless support services under their housing services. Safe Park is a unique program that provides safe parking for up to five cars for single women, single men, and families who are temporarily living in their vehicles.

“Fishline’s Food for Thought program began in response to the need of low-income students to have enough food during school closures. It’s a fabulous program used by many students,” says Karen Keefe, Broker. Weekends, holidays, and summer can be stressful for food-insecure students who rely on free and reduced school meals. The Food for Thought program delivers meal kits to low-income students in Poulsbo and Suquamish every Friday. Also, this program provides meals during the summer.

Recognition

Impacting countless lives, Fishline’s programs and their innovative efforts have not gone unnoticed. In fact, two of its programs have received the Food Lifeline Excellence in Client Services Award. This industry award considers programs from food banks throughout Washington state.

Get Involved

Undoubtedly, the combined effort of volunteers and donors is what has powered Fishline’s mission throughout the years. In addition to volunteering and donating, you can host fundraisers or food drives to get involved. “Fishline is such an amazing, well-organized nonprofit in its mission to help our community of people in need. I love supporting it,” says Broker Mary Richards.

Hosting an annual food drive is a great way to connect with neighbors and impact your community. “Terry Burns and I host an annual food drive every November in Poulsbo’s Forest Rock Hills to benefit Fishline,” says Liz Bailey, Realtor. “All donated items go directly to Fishline. In 2020, the generous residents of Forest Rock Hills contributed 1,150 pounds of food along with cash donations totaling $1,500.” 

Other Ways to Support Fishline

You can also support Fishline by shopping at or donating to Second Season Thrift Store. All sales directly support Fishline’s vision. Due to the pandemic, Second Season’s donations have decreased while the number of people in need of Fishline’s services has increased. To donate, go to the old Fishline building (19705 NW, Viking Ave NW in Poulsbo) on Tuesdays and Thursdays from 10:00 AM until 2:00 PM. For more information, visit their Donation Sites page. 

Real Estate Market • January 26, 2021

Fourth Quarter Review and 2021 Forecast for North Kitsap

by Windermere Poulsbo
real estate model houses

Poulsbo’s North Kitsap market saw a strong end to 2020. We’ve compiled key highlights from our fourth quarter as well as some useful insights from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner. Gardner also offers his 2021 market forecast with some uplifting and interesting predictions.

Q4 North Kitsap market stats

Our Strong Seller’s Market

Poulsbo’s inventory remains low while demand is high from people moving away from the bigger cities. Buyers, the market is in the usual seasonal slowdown – but not as slow as expected given COVID-19. There are still many eager buyers outnumbering sellers. Our Brokers have seen an increase in situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash offer.

In 2020’s fourth quarter, the average sale price in North Kitsap was up 21.3% year-over-year at $597K. Sale prices continue to hover close to listing prices, indicating strong demand.

North Kitsap market sold graph

average listing price graph North Kitsap

2021 Forecast 

In his final Monday with Matthew video of 2020, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, shared his 2021 forecast for the housing market. He’s optimistic and for some good reasons.

First off, Gardners expects mortgage rates will not rise significantly on a local level, nor will they vary significantly throughout different regions across the U.S. Since mortgage rates are heavily tied to 10-year treasury maturity rates/yields, rates shouldn’t rise significantly until the entire market recovers from the COVID-19 slowdown.  Another great sign is that Gardner expects home sales will grow significantly, from 5.55% in 2020 to 5.93% in 2021. That’s “to a level we haven’t seen since 2006,” Gardner explains.  With the continuation of historically low mortgage rates and the consistent increase of home values, 2021 looks bright.

“No! There isn’t a housing bubble forming. But price growth will slow & sellers may feel like it’s a collapse … it isn’t collapsing, it’s just normalizing.”

Matthew reminds us that there are pitfalls to be wary of in this strong market. First and foremost: “we need more inventory.”  With the shuffling to new homes, and the huge wave of “first-time buyers [that] will continue to be a major player in the housing market,” many are making moves in a flood that will not persist. Buying during the pandemic will slowly settle. People are expected to stay in their homes longer, especially homeowners who have chosen to refinance. House values will rise due to the lack of supply, and that may price out many buyers who want to purchase in our area. 

Western Washington’s Market Report

For a big picture glance at how our local market compares, here are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

  • Total Sales: 26.6% increase from Q4/2019, but 8.3% lower than Q3/2020
  • Homes for Sale: 37.3% lower than Q4/2019, and 31.2% lower than Q3/2020
  • Pending Sales: up 25% from Q4/2019, but 31% lower than Q3/2020
WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES
  • Average: $617,475 (up 17.4% from Q4/2019). This continues the trend of above-average appreciation of home values.
  • Interestingly, prices between Q3 and Q4 of 2020 only rose by 1%.  Is there a price ceiling we’re reaching?
  • Mortgage rates will stay competitive as the market continues to charge toward a price ceiling and potential affordability issues.
DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON
  • Average: 31 Days (16 days less than Q4 just one year ago)
  • In Kitsap County, average days on market: 17

Conclusion

Yes, it’s a Seller’s Market once again.  Matthew Gardner says, “I am moving the needle even further in favor of sellers.”  Here’s why: Covid-19 continues to push homeowners to stay put while renters flock to the countryside.  The resulting limited supply has “caused the region’s housing market to be incredibly active.” Matthew does warn that there may be “affordability concerns” that could prevent some homebuyers from entering the market and eventually slowing growth.
2021 will continue the trend of working from home, which keeps demand high. This, in turn, will drive sales growth, while affordability barriers will balance our current runaway appreciation for home values.
Community • December 9, 2020

Easy, Fun Ways to Start the New Year Right

by Windermere Poulsbo
2021 runner

2021 is the fresh start we’ve been waiting for; it’s a new year full of hope and possibility. Want to really make it a year to remember? Here are some fun, easy ways to do just that, right here in Kitsap County.

Enjoy the View

We all get caught up in routines and sometimes that means we take things for granted, like this beautiful place we call home. Bundle up and take a walk on a trail you haven’t been on in months (or ever). Really enjoy the sights and sounds around you.

“I love feeling like a tourist in my own town,” says Cherie Kesti, Branch Manager/Mortgage Consultant for Penrith Home Loans. Kesti enjoys walking along Poulsbo’s marina and through the park. Another great spot in North Kitsap is Point No Point Park and Lighthouse in Hansville. Broker Bonnie Chandler highly recommends it saying, “It’s a favorite beach walk of mine.” Chandler also notes that the lighthouse there is the oldest on Puget Sound. For a more expansive place to take it all in, head to Port Gamble Forest Heritage Park. “I always feel refreshed and renewed after visiting the Port Gamble Forest Heritage Park,” says Broker Valerie Gallagher. “This spacious park is a gift to the community with nearly 3,500 acres & 60 miles of trails!”

While you’re taking it all in, try to remember what it felt like to experience this place for the first time. Or, if you grew up here, remember the joy of sharing this place with a visitor. Focusing on those positive feelings can go a long way, boosting your mood and helping you refuel.

Actually Unplug

If your daily life involves a lot of screen time, take a day to fully unplug. Turn off your laptop, your TV, and yes, even your phone. It can be hard to do but so worth it. See what it feels like to spend time with those you love without any devices. Play a board game, write those holiday thank you notes, work on a home improvement project you’ve been meaning to finish. Whatever you decide to do, you may be surprised how often you instinctively reach for your phone throughout the day. Taking a break can help you step back and see where you really are on the usage spectrum. You may decide you want to limit your screen time as a new year’s resolution. If nothing else, a day off from electronics will help you appreciate them more.

Share Your Love of Books

Whether you’re an avid reader or have fond memories reading childhood favorites, make this a year to remember by sharing your love of books. Dust off some old stories that others could benefit from and donate them to your nearest Little Free Library. If there isn’t one near you, start your own! It’s a fun project, especially if you have kids. They can help you design it, decorate it, and fill it with all kinds of books for the neighborhood to enjoy.

Starting or adding to a Little Free Library also calls for a visit to your local bookstore. After all, you’ll have to pick up something new to read to fill those empty spots on your bookshelf. We love local bookstores like Poulsbo’s Liberty Bay Books and Eagle Harbor Book Co. on Bainbridge Island. If you struggle to find the time to sit down with a good book, we suggest downloading the free app called Libby. You can borrow ebooks and audiobooks on it by connecting it to your Kitsap Regional Library card. It’s easy to use and offers thousands of books for free.

Create a Gratitude Jar

Here’s a simple yet meaningful activity to do with your family. Get a large jar and decorate it with the word “gratitude” on it or purchase a gratitude jar like this one. Throughout the year, you and your family members can add notes to it: things you’re thankful for and moments you enjoyed. At the end of 2021, sit down together and go through all of these little notes. It’s a great way to reminisce and regularly practice gratitude throughout the year. To get in the habit, pick a day each week to do it as a family, like on Sundays after dinner. That way, it becomes part of your routine. Additionally, be sure to put it in a prominent place with pens and blank notecards so anyone can quickly jot something down and add it to the jar. The easier you make it, the more little notes you’ll have at the end of the year to enjoy.

Here’s to a wonderful new year ahead! 

Real Estate Market • October 22, 2020

North Kitsap’s Market: Third Quarter Review and Forecast

by Windermere Poulsbo
North Kitsap market graph

North Kitsap’s market had a very strong third quarter. We’ve compiled key stats below to provide a comprehensive review of our market, as well as insights and predictions from Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

Our Strong Seller’s Market

It’s a strong seller’s market here in North Kitsap. Inventory remains low while demand is high. In our third quarter, the median sale price was up 9% year-over-year at $508K. Buyers should be aware that multiple offer situations have become more common in our area. Our Brokers have seen an increase in situations where some buyers are outbid either by price or by an all-cash buyer. 

sold pending graph north kitsap county

inventory graph north kitsap county

north kitsap real estate stats

Market Predictions

Although mortgage rates remain historically low and demand is high, our Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner, has some concerns about how this may impact real estate down the road. “We may be heading towards a period where we see houses turn over at a far slower pace as we stay in our homes for longer than ever…this could be a problem as it leads to persistently low levels of inventory for sale, which itself could lead to prices continuing to rise at above-average rates and that would further hit affordability.” As for mortgage rates, Gardner does not expect them to rise significantly any time soon. However, he says, “We should all be aware that there could be consequences to very low rates”.

Western Washington Review

Let’s zoom out a bit and look at our area. Below are highlights from The Western Washington Gardner Report provided by Windermere Real Estate’s Chief Economist, Matthew Gardner.

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME SALES

  • Total Sales: 11.6% increase from Q3/2019, and 45.9% higher than Q2/2020
  • Homes for Sale: 41.7% lower than Q3/2019, but up 1.6% from Q2/2020
  • Pending Sales: up 29% from Q2/2020

WESTERN WASHINGTON HOME PRICES

  • Average: $611,793 (up 17.1% from Q3/2019). Low mortgage rates and limited inventory are clearly pushing prices up.
  • Prices will continue to increase as long as mortgage rates and inventory levels stay low. If this continues to be the case, affordability issues will become more apparent in many markets.

DAYS ON MARKET, WESTERN WASHINGTON

  • Average: 36 days (an average of 4 fewer days than in Q2/2020 and 2 fewer days than in Q3/2019)
  • In Kitsap County, average days on market: 20

Conclusion

In Gardner’s Western Washington Report, he states that, although we have a strong seller’s market that is very buoyant, he’s “starting to see affordability issues increase in many areas—not just in the central Puget Sound region—and this is concerning. Perhaps the winter will act to cool the market, but something is telling me we shouldn’t count on it.”

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